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FA Notes

August 22nd, 2012 Comments off

Market +0.02%

Fed minutes: “Many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon unless incoming information pointed to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery.” Link Link2

-eBay’s PayPal partnership with Discover to let PayPal users use credit cards in physical stores Link

-Digitimes speculation iPhone 5 component yields not great Link

-Equity L/S hedge-fund performance. July YTD #s: Maverick +20%, Lone Pine +20% (Aug. 10), Passport -13%, SAC +6%, Viking +9% Link

Categories: FA Observations

FA Notes

August 21st, 2012 Comments off

Market –0.35%

-WSJ: Merkel faces tough choices as Greek crisis threatens euro anew Link

-WSJ: Lockhardt suggests QE3 isn’t a done deal Link

-German senior lawmaker says concessions with Greece bailout possible Link

-Sarepta’s risks shouldn’t be ignored Link

-Coinstar streaming strategy HBO Go-like, less quantity more curated Link

-German ECB Asmussen says bond purchases may be “unlimited” Link

-Oracle Investment Research downgrades Apple to hold Link

DELL call: corporate client discretionary spend "has been in a pause" in current uncertain environment. component prices hasn’t changed much. Little bit more deflation due to weak demand, but not dramatically different. consumer "revenue deterioration clearly worse than they expected" deterioration can’t last forever co says "challenging end-user computing environment in the 2H (of year)" "long-term strategy will take time" seeing shift to tablets/smartphones. Q2 consumer revenue $2.62 billion, operating income $14 million. consumer business -22% y/y, consumer notebook sales -26% y/y (OMG UGLY! iPad driven implosion). "continued budgetary challenges" in government public business

consumer PC/segment revenue last 3 quarters y/y: Q4 -4% y/y, Q1 -12% y/y, Q2 -22% y/y
large enterprise: Q4 +5% y/y, Q1 -3% y/y, Q2 -3% y/y. Small business Q4 +10% y/y, Q1 +4% y/y, Q2 -1% y/y
public: Q4 -1% y/y, Q1 -4% y/y, Q2 -6% y/y

DELL cash flow from operations $637 million vs.*gasp* GS estimate of $1.11 billion

DELL EPS beat this quarter is all one-time lower tax-rate and one-time vendor settlement, it’s not a beat

DELL guides FY2013 EPS to "at least 1.70" vs. previous guidance of at least 2.13 and street estimate of 1.91. next quarter guidance is really bad. Sales mid-point $13.99B vs. even already meager estimate of $14.86B

BKS call: won’t give out Nook unit numbers (weird). Shades of Grey had biggest impact on our numbers. Traffic is up y/y. best-sellers only 5% of sales. Nook ASP -23% y/y. Nooks sales would have been significantly higher if it wasn’t for product shortages of Nook Glowlight. expect to gain share with Windows 8 ebook-store launch. will launch UK Nook biz with top retailers in October. Nook news-stand is leading seller of digital magazines. their data suggests they are maintaining 25-30% market share in ebooks

BKS Nook device sales y/y last 3 qters: 64%, negative, negative. Nook digital content: 85%, 65%, 46%. Overall Nook sales: 38%, 1%, flat

BBY call: "stuff going on in the public market place is a distraction" notebook industry is softer than they anticipated going into Windows 8 launch.  visibility to technology product launches in 2H is "variable" In other words, they have no idea. TVs mid single digit growth, but lower ASPs. Smaller/mid size screens. gross margin lower than anticipated. Greater mix of smart-phones, lower volumes of notebooks – bigger promotions. China really weak as economy slows there. TV, gaming, notebooks weak. Mobile phones, tablets better. lower gross margin due to product mix and promotions

Categories: FA Observations

FA Notes

August 20th, 2012 Comments off

Market 0%

-Spiegel reports that the ECB is considering sovereign bond yield caps Link

-ECB responds to Spiegel report by saying bond yield targets have not be discussed by the council Link

-German central bank reiterates opposition to ECB bond buying plans Link Link2

-ECB Asmussen says a Greece exit would be manageable Link

-WSJ on ECB bond spread cap speculation Link

-FT does same Link

-Another article on the SRPT drug trial brothers in Vermont Link

Categories: FA Observations

FA Notes

August 17th, 2012 Comments off

Market +0.19%

-Michigan consumer sentiment 73.6 vs. 72 est., 72.3 prior

-Fed looks at Univ. Michigan inflation outlook. Decent uptick month/month. 5 year outlook 3% vs. 2.7%. 1 year outlook 3.6% vs. 3%

U.S. consumer inflation expectations

-SHLD Fairholme investment thesis Link

SHLD Kmart comp weakest since Q3-2008 at -4.7% vs. -0.5% GS est., Sears domestic -2.9% vs. -1% est.

Categories: FA Observations

FA Notes

August 16th, 2012 Comments off

Market +0.71%

fillyfed12-08-
-Philadelphia Fed –7.1 vs. –5 est., –12.9 prior

-Jobless claims 366K vs. 365K est. Prior revised to 364K vs. 361K

-Merkel backs Draghi plan Link

-Petition for SRPT drug approval Link

-Nvidia GTX 660 review $299 card Link

WMT call: deflation in electronics, grocery inflation moderated slightly from Q1, categories with higher inflation customers trade-down. entertainment negative low-single digit comp. Media/gaming weak, tablets strong. market share gains in grocery, health & wellness. stationery, crafts, sporting good, auto, and hardware "performed well".

Categories: FA Observations

FA Notes

August 15th, 2012 1 comment

Market +0.11%

-U.S. Empire Manufacturing August -5.85 vs. 7 est., prior 7.39

-CPI ex food energy 0.1% vs. 0.2% est. +2.2% y/y vs. +2.2 prior

-Facebook testing more ads on the news feeds Link

-AT&T in talks to give up on CDN business and resell AKAM Link

-2 Vermont brothers battle deadly disorder. 1 in SRPT drug trial Link

CSCO call: Q4 product orders +2% y/y. Americas +4% y/y. Europe -6% y/y. Asia +12% y/y. Q1 guidance ex-acquisition sales +2-4% y/y vs. +3.6% est. EPS 45-47c vs. 46c est. Basically in-line

AMAT Q4 guidance 1.57B sales vs. 1.94B est.

CSCO CEO on CNBC: feel good about about Asia, not as concerned as other companies about Asia. Europe will get little tougher before it gets better

TGT call: August tracking to the 3% comp guidance for quarter, same as Q2 comp "electronics soft this quarter"

DE call: industry outlook for China has softened as government subsidies have been delayed

‏SPLS call: financial market vertical weakest. White collar head-count reductions (job cuts) hurting them. online competitors price gap has narrowed. July sales were worse than June and May. double digit growth in mobile phones.. Google Nexus tablet "very strong". computer trends likely to remain weak till Windows 8 launch in late October. computers and software down double-digits "steep decline in computer sales" and soft Europe main drivers of quarter’s weakness

SPLS PR: "more than offset by weakness in computers and core office supplies during the second quarter" "Q2 results fell short of.. expectations due to softer than expected sales trends in North America..weakness in Europe..Australia"

Categories: FA Observations

FA Notes

August 14th, 2012 Comments off

Market –0.01%

12-8-14ppi

12-8-14retail

Source: Link

KORS call: have not seen any change in traffic in full price and outlet channel (ouch Coach). No change in tourist traffic across the globe. stores that are 4 years old actually comped higher than some of new stores. under-developed significantly in fragrances "potential very large upside for us". "not seen impact to our operations" Europe macro conditions "believe we are taking market-share" retail comparable store sales 37.3% vs. 35% est. Upside in quarter mainly wholesale business and new stores.

KORS 34c v 20c est. Sales 414.9 v 367.9 est. Guides 34c vs 28c est. Sales 490-500 v 422.2 est. Full FY 1.33 v 1.12 Sales 1.8-1.9B

DKS 65c vs. 64c EPS est. Sales 1.44B vs. 1.44B est. Comp 3.8% vs 3.66%. Guides next qter 36c vs. 36c. Pretty in-linish overall

DKS call: back-to-school business have been really quite good" "nice lift in fire-arm sales" "we’ve taken up our guidance" "for us that’s kind of bullish" testing high-end technical running stores 4000 square feet

GRPN call: 2 main drivers of quarter 1) softness in Europe 2) growth of Groupon Goods $19m to $65m q/q. 1/3 of North America transactions done on mobile devices.

TJX call: guides August comp +5-6% y/y, September +1-3%, October +1-3% (down from 7% in Q2)

Categories: FA Observations

FA Notes

August 13th, 2012 Comments off

Market –0.13%

-Barnes and Noble cut Nook pricing Link

-iMore says Apple iPhone 5 to be released in U.S. on September 21http://bit.ly/PjNFQk

July_sss_1

Source: July Channel Advisor Link

Categories: FA Observations

FA Notes

August 10th, 2012 Comments off

Market +0.22%

-ATVI Battle.Net gets hacked Link

-Interview with Jack Schwager Hedge-fund market wizards Link

-RIMM draws interest from IBM for its Enterprise Services unit Link

-July y/y billed business slower than Q2 for American Express Link

-Macy’s considering same-day delivery for online orders Link

-July 2012 NPD video-game sales –23% y/y Link

-Samsung smartphone and tablet sales by model Link

-Latest USDA corn crop report Link

NVDA consumer products business segment (includes Tegra, not PC graphics) was up 35.5% q/q.

JCP PR: "Company no longer anticipates achieving the previously issued non-GAAP earnings guidance for fiscal 2012"

Source: Link

Categories: FA Observations

FA Notes

August 9th, 2012 Comments off

Market +0.04%

NVDA EPS 27c vs. 14c estimate. 1.04B vs 1.01B sales. Key is big guidance raise for next qter to 1.2B (avg) vs. 1.09B estimate. “Tegra has achieved record sales as tablets come into their own. Our GPU business made strong gains in a weak market, boosted by our breakthrough Kepler architecture”

-Jobless claims 361K vs. 367K est., prior 365K revised to 367K

-ECB Noyer: “Our operations will be of sufficient size to have a strong impact on the markets. We should be ready to intervene very soon, prioritizing short-term debt markets” Link

-MNST probed by a state attorney general from 10Q Link

-Taiwan notebook ODMs see weak demand in August as Windows 8 sentiment turns negative: http://bit.ly/ONvLoy

Categories: FA Observations