Interview with Felix Zulauf on May 19th, 2011
-markets will go through a rocky period in the next few months
-emerging economies are slowing
-Europe looks dangerous “double dip”
-I like to look forward not backwards
-PIIGS looking at negative growth going forward, bad for Germany
-see tremendous slowing in China. Tightening, first time housing prices rising less than mortgage rates. Will lead to a dramatic slow-down in construction
-Chinese will continue to tighten, economy will slow into next year, inflation is dangerous for them due to “social issues”
-U.S. dollar has been beaten down so much, “tremendous short position out there”, dollar will rise, valid into Fall of this year
-markets are always running ahead of the fundamentals
-EM will stimulate in 2012 and currencies will then strengthen
-commodity sector is most exposed to risk, particularly the base metals, dramatic inflow of money, so over-heated. Once we see slowing growth in China/EM, this sector will be hurt the most
-short copper, be defensive – household products, utilities, food/beverages, away from basic resources/energy
-in next 5-6 years, bonds look awful. Bernanke doing opposite of Volcker. Bernanke is putting more and more liquidity, negative real interest rates, debasing of currency, rising inflation, rising interest rates, rising bond yields
-however it could take 2-3 years before bond yields take off
-as soon as authorities see asset prices are declining, governments will do QE3 or QE4. It will be global in nature
Link
More Felix Zulauf articles: Link











