Reading all these articles and sell-side notes today on how analysts and journalists were “stunned” and “shocked” at Best Buy’s holiday sales report leave me a bit perturbed.
Brian Sozzi, CEO and chief equities strategist for Belus Capital Advisors, said Best Buy’s results were "shocking." Source
There were at least a 1/2 dozen clear data-points in the past few weeks that pointed to the increasingly promotional environment and weak consumer electronics sales trends. It shouldn’t have been surprising at all. Obviously none of these so-called experts follow me on Twitter.
Read some of the data-point tweets below:
1) Best Buy (posted 1/9/14) Link
2) Gamestop (posted 1/9/14) Link
3) Best Buy (posted 1/2/14) Link
4) Target (posted 1/1/14) Link
5) Gamestop (posted 12/30/13) Link
6) Walmart (posted 12/30/13) Link
It’s that time of year again. Remember I’m a bigger fan of reacting to important fundamental inflection point news after the fact than making decisions from far off future predictions. I do however find it useful to crystallize my current leanings and thoughts with this annual top 10 list. I reserve the right to change my mind at any time as new facts and data-points are released. Here it goes:
1. T-Mobile will continue to take big market-share from Sprint, AT&T and Verizon Wireless as they simply have the best value proposition in the industry: good enough quality (far better than Sprint) at a lower price.
2. Microsoft will be forced to lower the price of the Xbox One console to compete with Sony PS4’s sales dominance.
3. Apple will launch a larger screen-size iPhone, which will be a huge success leading to significant earnings acceleration.
4. The rise of little-to-no profit margin Chinese Android smart-phone companies like
Xiaomi will compress margins at Samsung Electronics.
5. Amazon will launch a Kindle Fire phone with a free or low-cost data plan like FreedomPop. It will not get traction just like the Kindle Fire tablet. Amazon’s media sales growth rate will mysteriously tumble in early-to-mid 2014 due to comp-ing the 3P to 1P ebook accounting shift, which added billions of misleading revenues in 2013.
6. Electronic Arts and Activision will both disappoint the street as gamers revolt at the publishers’ deteriorating game quality.
7. Sears Holdings’ digital transformation strategy into e-commerce, digital marketing, and 3rd party marketplaces will fail miserably.
8. The Zynga turnaround will fail leading to a large layoff.
9. Uber’s private valuation will sky higher as the startup has a killer profitable business model with a powerful viral network effect. The company will eventually establish a platform for other verticals outside of transportation.
10. Twitch.TV and Oculus Rift virtual reality headset gaming startups will both become massive success stories.
Nonfarm payrolls 74K vs. 200K est./prior 203K revised to 241K
Private payrolls 87K vs. 189K est./prior 196K revised to 226K
Unemployment rate 6.7% vs. 7.0% est./prior 7.0%
ADP December Employment 238K vs 205K est./prior 215K revised to 229K
ISM non-manufacturing 53.0 vs. 54.8 est./53.9 prior
New orders 49.4/56.4 prior
Employment 55.8/52.5 prior
Chrysler +5.7% vs. +8.4% est.
Ford +1.7% vs. +4.3% est.
GM –6.3% vs. +1.5% est.
Hyundai +6% vs. +7.2% est.
ISM manufacturing 57 vs. 57 est./57.3 prior
New orders 64.2/63.6
Jobless claims 339K vs. 339K est/prior 338K revised to 341K