Archive for August, 2012

FA Notes

August 31st, 2012 No comments

Market +0.51%

-Chicago PMI 53.0 vs. 53.0 est., 53.7 prior

-Consumer sentiment 74.3 vs. 73.5 est., 73.6 prior

-China Manufacturing PMI 49.2, 49.8 est., 50.1 prior

-California targets more web retailers for state tax collection Link

-WSJ Hilsenrath: "left little doubt that he is looking toward doing more to give the economy a lift at the Fed’s next policy meeting in Sept" “Maybe an unusually strong jobs report Sept. 7, a few days before Sept. 12 meeting of the Fed’s policy committee could change the Fed’s calculations. But taken together speech sounds a lot like Mr. Bernanke’s closing argument in favor for more easing”

-Fed Bernanke’s speech. Nothing incremental "as needed":

-Telegraph: Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann ‘considered resigning over ECB bond buying’

-Germany Bundesbank’s Weidmann Never Threatened To Resign Post, Source Tells DJ-WSJ

-AppleInsider: Amazon won’t unveil larger Kindle Fire next week Link

Categories: News

FA Notes

August 30th, 2012 No comments

Market –0.78%

-Jobless claims 374K vs. 370K est., prior 372K revised to 374K

-Core PCE 0% vs. 0.1% est., 0.2% prior. 1.6% y/y vs. 1.8% y/y prior

-Kansas City Fed index 8 vs. 5 est. 5 prior

-Another SRPT trial kid talks to media about positive result Link

-Amazon’s Fuzzy Math (22% Kindle Fire market-share) Link

-Amazon starts Pennsylvania 6% state sales tax collection. California to start September 15th Link


Source: Link

-Fed Lockhart: "not concerned of long term costs of more action" "same time I see limited benefit of more action" Fed Lockhart: no question more stimulus if 1) deterioration from this point <100K jobs/month 2) disinflation risk – deflation risk Voting member Fed Atlanta Dennis Lockhart on CNBC: "pretty clear economy growing at 2%" on more stimulus "close call really"

-China Premier Wen Jiabao after talking to Merkel "After I heard her views, it increased my confidence.. I must honestly say, the implementation of these measures won’t be completely smooth"

OVTI call: not easy to forecast Q3 unit numbers due to macro concerns
OVTI call: higher product costs equals lower gross margin
OVTI call: do not expect to see material reductions on manufacturing expense in the near term (lower gross margins), R&D going up too
OVTI call: strategic decision to pre-build inventory to meet strong demand
OVTI great revenue guidance $355-390M vs $269M estimate, but guides EPS down on bad margins. Stinks to negotiate with $AAPL I guess

Categories: News

FA Notes

August 29th, 2012 No comments

Market +0.08%

-Q2 GDP 1.7 vs. 1.7 est. Price index 1.6 vs. 1.6 est.

-ECB Draghi editorial "fulfilling our mandate sometimes requires us to go beyond standard monetary policy tools” "This may at times require exceptional measures" Link

-TrustEgg allows anyone to setup a trust for their kids Link

-NYTimes Pogue says imminent $AMZN movie deal coming for thousands more streaming movies:

-$JOY call: China deceleration last few months. "surprised how quickly and deeply" in China. "1/2 prior year’s growth rate"

-$JOY order bookings: underground mining -25.5% y/y, surface mining -38.5% y/y.

-$JOY PR: "the deceleration of China demand has deteriorated international markets more quickly and severely than previously expected"

-$JOY PR: "outlook for our business has continued to decline over the past quarter"

Categories: News

FA Notes

August 28th, 2012 No comments

Market –0.08%

-Spain bank deposits down 4.7% in July vs. June. Sharpest drop since ECB collected this data since 1997

-consumer confidence 60.6 vs. 65.8 est., prior 65.9 revised to 65.4

-Richmond Fed manufacturing index –9 vs. –10 est., –17 prior

-StarTribune: Best Buy clears way for Schulze offer Link

-NYTimes on Amazon AWS Link

-MarketThoughts: Jesse Livermore and his Legacy Link

-NVDA reportedly delays Maxwell from 2013 to 2014 due to Taiwan Semi slower rollout:

-GOOG now advertising Google Nexus 7 tablet on their search engine home-page. That’s called monopoly leverage folks:

-SRPT Sarepta Soars 14%+ To Decade High On Muscular Dystrophy Treatment Trial

FIO call: reiterated Q1 guidance modest increase in revs, 56-58% margin, op margin 10%. 1/3 of Fortune 500 now customers. Partnerships HP/IBM/Dell/Cisco/NetApp helping. 40 end user customers greater than $1M. last quarter Apple and Facebook 53% of revenue. 10 million servers expected to ship in 2012 vs. 100K stoarge arrays. MUCH BIGGER market opportunity for FIO

Categories: News

FA Notes

August 27th, 2012 No comments

Market –0.05%

-Dallas Fed –1.6 vs. –6 estimate, –13.2 prior

-key patents GOOG needs to either license from AAPL or work around are 1) tap to zoom 2) multi-touch gestures

-9 quotes from George Soros:

-Mitt Romney’s funds annual return 1984-1999 +88% per year. Source: Howard Anderson, former VC and Bain Capital investor

-Steve Jobs: Good artists copy great artists steal Link

TIF call: don’t anticipate meaningful price increases rest of the year. strongest performance came in Japan. higher spend by China/Japan tourists off-set by lower spend by European tourists. sales in NYC flagship store -9%

Categories: News

FA Notes

August 24th, 2012 No comments

Market +0.65%

-Durable goods ex-transportation –0.4% vs. 0.4% est., prior –1.1% revised to –2.2%

-Reuters: ECB mulls setting target bands for bond yield – central bank sources Link

-Bloomberg: ECB to await Germany ESM court rule before settling on plan Link

-German finance ministry studying Greece euro exit Link

-“There is scope for further action by the Federal Reserve to ease financial conditions” Bernanke letter to Congressman Link

-Vermont mom to petition the FDA for SRPT in October Link

-ITG raises quarterly revenue estimate for AMZN to $14.2B vs. $13.9B est. Link

Categories: News

FA Notes

August 23rd, 2012 No comments

Market –0.81%

-HSBC China flash manufacturing PMI 47.8 vs. 49.3 prior

-EU flash manufacturing PMI 45.3 vs. 44.2 est., 44 prior

-Jobless claims 372K vs. 363K est., 359K prior

-Reuters: Spain in talks with EU over sovereign aid Link

-VC Fred Wilson interview Link

-Tiger Global up 21% YTD Link

-CNBC: Fed’s Bullard on QE3 Link Link2

Key take-away from Fed Bullard this morning on CNBC is the QE on the Fed table is smaller, not bazooka size. Fed Bullard: doesn’t mean no action. That’s the question that is on the table for the committee (sounds like smaller action on the table). Fed Bullard: if recession probability would go up sharply, then I’m sure the FOMC would come in (easing). Fed Bullard: 2% growth, 150K jobs, claims below 400K = middling data. I don’t think FOMC can take gigantic action based on muddling thu data. Fed Bullard threshold that "works surprisingly well" is jobless claims over 400K. 370K is about 150K monthly jobs growth. Probability of QE `Not as High’ As Markets Expected This Summer –CNBC. Bullard: central bank can control medium-run rate of inflation (5 years he says), he looks at the TIPS for inflation expectations. Bullard on ECB trying to save Europe: "if Lincoln has been shot and surgeon says he will do whatever it takes, only so much he can do". Fed Bullard: "if growth continues around 2% for the remainder of the year, the Fed likely will remain on the sidelines".

ADSK call: short-fall was mainly central Europe, Brazil, and India. central Europe and Americas worse than expected. Southern Europe was weak as expected. short-fall in revenue didn’t show up till July. Recent re-org hurt. “July was an unmitigated disaster” pricing increase in August didn’t stimulate demand in July like it usually does historically.

HPQ call: challenges in consumer printing, secular shift to tablets, execution, and pricing pressures across the board. “we see economic slow-down in China" Russia/India good, Brazil medium, China not as strong as they would have liked. will give FY13 guidance in October

Categories: News

FA Notes

August 22nd, 2012 No comments

Market +0.02%

Fed minutes: “Many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon unless incoming information pointed to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery.” Link Link2

-eBay’s PayPal partnership with Discover to let PayPal users use credit cards in physical stores Link

-Digitimes speculation iPhone 5 component yields not great Link

-Equity L/S hedge-fund performance. July YTD #s: Maverick +20%, Lone Pine +20% (Aug. 10), Passport -13%, SAC +6%, Viking +9% Link

Categories: News

FA Notes

August 21st, 2012 No comments

Market –0.35%

-WSJ: Merkel faces tough choices as Greek crisis threatens euro anew Link

-WSJ: Lockhardt suggests QE3 isn’t a done deal Link

-German senior lawmaker says concessions with Greece bailout possible Link

-Sarepta’s risks shouldn’t be ignored Link

-Coinstar streaming strategy HBO Go-like, less quantity more curated Link

-German ECB Asmussen says bond purchases may be “unlimited” Link

-Oracle Investment Research downgrades Apple to hold Link

DELL call: corporate client discretionary spend "has been in a pause" in current uncertain environment. component prices hasn’t changed much. Little bit more deflation due to weak demand, but not dramatically different. consumer "revenue deterioration clearly worse than they expected" deterioration can’t last forever co says "challenging end-user computing environment in the 2H (of year)" "long-term strategy will take time" seeing shift to tablets/smartphones. Q2 consumer revenue $2.62 billion, operating income $14 million. consumer business -22% y/y, consumer notebook sales -26% y/y (OMG UGLY! iPad driven implosion). "continued budgetary challenges" in government public business

consumer PC/segment revenue last 3 quarters y/y: Q4 -4% y/y, Q1 -12% y/y, Q2 -22% y/y
large enterprise: Q4 +5% y/y, Q1 -3% y/y, Q2 -3% y/y. Small business Q4 +10% y/y, Q1 +4% y/y, Q2 -1% y/y
public: Q4 -1% y/y, Q1 -4% y/y, Q2 -6% y/y

DELL cash flow from operations $637 million vs.*gasp* GS estimate of $1.11 billion

DELL EPS beat this quarter is all one-time lower tax-rate and one-time vendor settlement, it’s not a beat

DELL guides FY2013 EPS to "at least 1.70" vs. previous guidance of at least 2.13 and street estimate of 1.91. next quarter guidance is really bad. Sales mid-point $13.99B vs. even already meager estimate of $14.86B

BKS call: won’t give out Nook unit numbers (weird). Shades of Grey had biggest impact on our numbers. Traffic is up y/y. best-sellers only 5% of sales. Nook ASP -23% y/y. Nooks sales would have been significantly higher if it wasn’t for product shortages of Nook Glowlight. expect to gain share with Windows 8 ebook-store launch. will launch UK Nook biz with top retailers in October. Nook news-stand is leading seller of digital magazines. their data suggests they are maintaining 25-30% market share in ebooks

BKS Nook device sales y/y last 3 qters: 64%, negative, negative. Nook digital content: 85%, 65%, 46%. Overall Nook sales: 38%, 1%, flat

BBY call: "stuff going on in the public market place is a distraction" notebook industry is softer than they anticipated going into Windows 8 launch.  visibility to technology product launches in 2H is "variable" In other words, they have no idea. TVs mid single digit growth, but lower ASPs. Smaller/mid size screens. gross margin lower than anticipated. Greater mix of smart-phones, lower volumes of notebooks – bigger promotions. China really weak as economy slows there. TV, gaming, notebooks weak. Mobile phones, tablets better. lower gross margin due to product mix and promotions

Categories: News

FA Notes

August 20th, 2012 No comments

Market 0%

-Spiegel reports that the ECB is considering sovereign bond yield caps Link

-ECB responds to Spiegel report by saying bond yield targets have not be discussed by the council Link

-German central bank reiterates opposition to ECB bond buying plans Link Link2

-ECB Asmussen says a Greece exit would be manageable Link

-WSJ on ECB bond spread cap speculation Link

-FT does same Link

-Another article on the SRPT drug trial brothers in Vermont Link

Categories: News