SodaStream (SODA) adds many Target, Staples, and Costco stores this quarter, which are not in Wall Street estimates
Sodastream CEO presentation on September 8, 2011 Link
Notice on “Slide 39” during a presentation the SodaStream CEO gave in September 2011; there is nothing on Target, Staples, and Costco.
Using the “Where to Buy” feature on the SodaStream website (Link), I find the product is now available in about 1/2 of Costco locations (a rough sample estimate) and every Target and Staples store in my area (Note: this may not be the same across the country).
A friend of mine in California said SodaStream was recently made available at his local Costco. My wife told me she saw SodaStream being demo-ed and sampled last weekend at our local Costco on the East Coast. I called that Costco up and an employee told me they had 100 units in stock.
I drove to my local Staples tonight and saw a huge end-of-aisle SodaStream display with 12 units right out in front when you walk in. It was right next to the Green Mountain Keurig display. I talked to an employee who told me he set the display up TODAY and they have one more box of inventory in the back. I estimate this Staples store got 20 units shipped-in.
I drove to my local Target and found the SodaStream display in the home kitchen area next to the microwaves and water filters. There was shelf space for 20 units. It looked like about 5 units were sold. I used the inventory checker with one of the units and found there was no more stock in the back. A Target employee told me it was a recent launch.
In previous SodaStream conference calls, management talked about a small 12 store test trial at Costco, which we now know had a large roll-out ramp up in the past week to more locations. Management also talked about testing at a big box mass-market discount retailer in the past year. Now we know that was Target with a massive roll-out this quarter. The Staples roll-out today is another positive surprise.
Costco has 432 stores in the U.S. Target has 1767 stores in the U.S. Staples has 1575 stores in the U.S. I do not know the exact store roll-out numbers, but from a dozen zip code searches on the Sodastream site’s “Where to Buy” feature it looks pretty significant across the board.
If you do the shipped-in math of 20 units per added Target and Staples stores and 100 units for 1/2 of the Costco stores for $80-120 per unit, it is easy to see upside vs. the Wall Street estimate for U.S. SodaStream revenue this quarter. Please note this is U.S. revenue only. I have no visibility on their sales in Europe.