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FA Notes Tuesday October 18, 2011

October 18th, 2011 No comments

IBM Q3 2011 earnings: small revenue miss $26.2B vs. $26.25B est. Hardware miss 4% vs. 8.8% y/y. Services signings miss $12.3B vs. $12.5B est.

VMW Q3 2011 earnings: in-line license revenue $444M

"We have seen a bit more scrutiny and higher levels of approval required. Particularly with larger deals where they would go for CFO and CEO approval, where in the past we may not have seen those approvals to be necessary," said VMWare Chief Financial Officer Mark Peeking. Link

CROX – fell 37% in after-hours trading as the company lowered its third quarter earnings and revenue guidance. The company said it now expects to post revenue of $273 to $275 million, versus its previous expectations for $280 million. EPS should come in at 31 to 33 cents, against previous guidance for 40 cents, the company said. Link

GS – “CEO and investor confidence as well as asset prices across markets were lower in the third quarter given the uncertain macroeconomic and market conditions.”

Who are the top 1%? Link

European bank with 53X leverage Link

Notes on David Einhorn’s GMCR Short Presentation Link Link2

Notes on Jim Chanos’ shorts Presentation Link Link2

Trading AAPL earnings Link

Under the scheme, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) would promise investors who buy Spanish, Italian or other higher-risk euro zone debt at auction that it would cover a portion of any losses they made if the country were to default. Link

Moody’s warned on Monday it may slap a negative outlook on France’s Aaa credit rating in the next three months if the costs for helping to bail out banks and other euro zone members stretch its budget too much Link

Spain’s housing price index in the July to September period fell 5.5% from a year earlier—the fastest pace of decline since 2009 – WSJ

Speaking in Detroit, Charles Evans, the Chicago Fed’s dovish chief, said some temporary increase in inflation may be the price the nation must pay if Fed policy is to reduce joblessness. Link

Some hedge funds, for example, say they’re not trading as much until they know how much money their clients will withdraw at the end of October, a deadline some clients have to inform funds of intentions to redeem money at year-end. 

"Any reasonable sized selling is driving individual bond prices down quite a bit," says Jeffrey Kronthal, co-founder of hedge fund KLS Diversified in New York, who says bid-offer spreads in areas such as some residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities have more than doubled in the past month or so. "Really, no dealers are putting up capital. A lot of stuff just doesn’t trade." – WSJ

China’s economy grew 9.1 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace since 2009. The gain was less than the median estimate of 9.3 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of 22 economists and followed a 9.5 percent increase in the previous three months. – Bloomberg

Categories: Blog

FA Notes October 17, 2011

October 17th, 2011 No comments

Seems like many investors are chasing performance
“We’re not having the same kind of recession as 2008, so we’re not going to have the same kind of drop in commodity prices,” said Brett Hammond, a senior economist with TIAA-CREF, a New York-based pension manager with $469 billion in assets. “Some of the air has come out of the bubble, but overall, I think there’s a lot more room for commodities to run.” Link

"There are so many people who were out of the market who are now saying, ‘Gee, I just missed a 10% move,’ " said Jenkins Marshall, managing director at Knight Capital, a trading firm in Jersey City, NJ. "And, ‘I can’t afford to miss the next 10% move.’ "

"You’ve got to put your money somewhere, and you’ve got to go with the U.S.," said Rick Fier, vice president of equity trading at Conifer Securities, with $12 billion under management. "After a week like this, people are starting to get scared that it’s like last year, where you get a rip-roaring rally in the fourth quarter that leaves you behind." Link

Bankers Balk at EU Push for Bigger Greek Losses Link

XLF – Barrons says buy the banks. Link

WFC – “The economic recovery has been more sluggish and uneven than anyone anticipated,” said Chairman and CEO John Stumpf.

AAPL – Colin Gillis at BGC downgrades Apple on potential iPhone and iPad sales weakness in the September quarter. Link

Germany shoots down “dreams” of swift Euro crisis solution. Link

SNDA – CEO makes a bid for Shanda for $41.35. Link

Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index rose to minus 8.5 from minus 8.8 in September. Economists projected an improvement to minus 4 Link

Categories: Blog