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Archive for May, 2011

FA Notes May 17, 2011

May 17th, 2011 1 comment

EU ministers discussing Greece “soft restructuring.” Link

SNDK MU – NAND flash memory prices contract in 1st half of May (16GB chips –6 to –8%). Link

GS – What happened to the Goldman partners from the 1999 IPO? Link

WMT – “U.S. same-store sales fell 1.1 percent, in line with the company’s forecast of a drop of 2 percent to flat and slightly better than the average 1.3 percent decline expected by analysts according to Thomson Reuters…Most of the decline in first-quarter U.S. same-store sales came from a drop in traffic in the stores, while the average that shoppers spent was up. Same-store sales of groceries and health and wellness items increased.” Link

AAPL – April Mac sales up 9% y/y. Link

LinkedIn IPO $405 million Link

Blue Ridge Capital 13F Link
Maverick Capital 13F Link
Vinik 13F Link
Third Point Link
Greenlight Capital Link
Lone Pine Capital Link
Tiger Global Link

Today’s POMO $5-7 billion
Today’s Sell-side FBR negative on AAPL Link

Categories: FA Observations

FA Notes May 16, 2011

May 16th, 2011 1 comment

SNDK – Sandisk buys Pliant Technology, a maker of enterprise SSDs, for $327M in cash.

NYX NDAQ ICE – Nasdaq and IntercontinentalExchange withdraw their proposal for NYSE Euronext after discussions with the Antitrust division of the U.S. Department of Justice. Link

NFLX – Netflix announces multi-year streaming deal with Miramax. Link

RIMM – Research in Motion recalls 1000 Playbooks. Link

SINA – New York Times writes about micro-blogs. Link

Felix Zulauf turns bearish and expects a 20% correction. Link

Today’s POMO $1-2 billion

Today’s Sell-side Morgan Stanley bullish on SNDK. Link

Today’s WSJ – “The U.S. government is expected to hit the $14.294 trillion debt ceiling Monday, setting in motion an uncertain, 11-week political scramble (August 2nd) to avoid a default.” Link

Merkel: Only voluntary agreements with creditors are imaginable. From 2013 must have clear rules on involvement of creditors even if that leads to higher interest rates on euro debt. Exit of any country from the euro zone is not in Germany’s interest”

Categories: FA Observations

FA Notes May 13, 2011

May 13th, 2011 2 comments

ATVI – Bungie’s new game is called Crimson. Link

TYC – New York Post says Tyco is still in play and being considered by Schneider + PE joint bid. Link

YHOO – Alibaba spun off Alipay without knowledge or consent from its board or shareholders. Link

YHOO – Alibaba rejects Yahoo’s accusation. Link

Today’s WSJ positive on data center server growth for INTC HPQ Link
Today’s WSJ negative on USO oil ETF due to contango Link

Today’s POMO $6-8 billion

Categories: FA Observations

FA Notes May 12, 2011

May 12th, 2011 1 comment

Jobless claims 434K vs. 430K est.
PPI 0.8% vs. 0.6% est., ex-food/energy 0.3% vs. 0.2% est.
Retail sales 0.5% vs. 0.6% est., ex-auto 0.6% vs. 0.6% est.

China’s central bank raises reserve requirements by 50bps. Link

AAPL – Digitimes says Apple suppliers facing labor and material shortages. Link

Euro – Finland agrees to Portugal bailout. Germany’s Merkel says Greece needs to meet strict terms to deserve loan extension. Link

Euro – German finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, said Greece must carry out extra savings for more international aid is freed up. Link

GOOG – Chromebook subscription details. Link

CLWR INTC – Intel looks to sell a portion of its stake in Clearwire. Link

Is it time to fight the Fed? Link

Today’s WSJ: Worried about YHOO getting full value for its Asian investments. Link
Today’s POMO: $5-7 billion

Earnings after close: NVDA

Categories: FA Observations

FA Notes May 11, 2011

May 11th, 2011 1 comment

GOOG – Google sets aside $500M related to possible resolution of Justice Department investigation. Link

HPQ – HP is belt tightening. Link

Leading IM provider in China, Tencent, reports earnings. Link

MSFT – Skype refused to take any bids under $7B. Link

OCZ – OCZ short interest spikes up to 8.65M shares (4/29). Link

AIG – Bruce Berkowitz admits he was wrong on AIG. Link

Evan Williams, founder of Twitter, top 10 rules for web startups. Link

AVC on 50/50 partnerships. Link

Today’s POMO $6-8 billion
WSJ Negative on MSFT Skype deal Link
EB+ M

Categories: FA Observations

FA Notes May 10, 2011

May 10th, 2011 Comments off

MSFT EBAY – Microsoft to buy Skype for $8.5 billion. Link

GOOG – Google to announce a new music service. Link

ATVI – World of Warcraft is losing subscribers. Link

My favorite Steve Ballmer story. Link

Sitting all day can kill you. Link

EMC – Blog post by the CTO of EMC about Flash SSDs changing storage. Link

Today’s POMO $5-7 billion

Categories: FA Observations

Did OCZ Technology (OCZ) Win SSD Business with EMC?

May 9th, 2011 1 comment

A bit of background here. The market leader in SLC (single-level cell) based SSD drives is STEC. SLC technology has historically been more reliable than MLC (multi-level cell), but more expensive. However thanks to recent improvements, MLC has become reliable enough where companies are now willing to use it due to its lower cost. The market leader in affordable MLC SSD drives is OCZ.

EMC put out a press release today titled: EMC Outlines Strategy to Accelerate Flash Adoption [Link]. It is very bullish on the future adoption of enterprise SSDs across their storage system products. However the line that caught my eye was this one:

EMC plans to design, test and qualify MLC-based SSDs for enterprise-class applications and incorporate them into EMC systems later this year, making enterprise flash storage more affordable.”

Then I remembered what OCZ said on their 5/3/11 earnings conference call last week [Link]:

We have recently seen a sole source design in with our Deneva series to well known enterprise class storage system OEM, who we expect to ramp to mass production quantities in our fourth quarter. And though we are still determining potential revenue for this client, we’re excited in our ability to win and compete with this business.”

The number of coincidences here is interesting:

1) Is EMC a well known enterprise class storage system OEM? Yes.

2) Is OCZ Deneva an affordable enterprise MLC-based SSD? Yes.

3) Does the EMC timing of “later this year” match up with OCZ Q4 timing mentioned on the conference call for this win? Yes.

I want to emphasize I have no hard information if OCZ has won any business from EMC. I’m just an investor connecting the dots from EMC’s press release today and OCZ’s earnings conference call last week; but given all the multiple data-points and with the timing matching up perfectly, it sure makes you think.

Disclosure: The author is long OCZ at time of writing.

Categories: Blog

FA Notes May 9, 2011

May 9th, 2011 Comments off

GLD – John Burbank of Passport Capital on gold. Link

NFLX – Netflix negotiating deals to expand to Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. Link

S&P cuts Greece credit rating to B from BB- Link

MSFT – Gigaom says Microsoft may bid for Skype. Link

NUAN – TechCrunch says Apple still in talks with Nuance for voice recognition technology. Link

Clive Capital lost $400 million last week due to oil. Link

EU considering requiring Greece to put of collateral for extra aid. Link

GOOG AAPL RIMM – March 2011 comScore smartphone OS market-share report. Link

LinkedIn IPO priced 7.8M shares at $32-35 a share ($3B+ market cap). Link

NFLX – Movie/TV studios public stance toward Netflix is growing more positive. Link

AAPL – Why every child in America needs an iPad. Link

Fairholme Funds (Bruce Berkowitz) will have a shareholder call at 11AM. Link

Article on Nelson Peltz: “As one of my partners says, diversification is for people who don’t have conviction. We can’t be brilliant about 50 companies. But we can be pretty smart about six or eight.” Link

Today’s POMO: $6-8 billion
Sell-side: Goldman upgrades ETFC and downgrades AMTD
WSJ: Positive article on NFLX saying studios warming up

EB+ BSFT SYY
EB- ZRAN

Categories: FA Observations

Why OCZ (OCZ) is an Enterprise SSD Play

May 8th, 2011 1 comment

Picture 1.png

There is a misperception that OCZ is a consumer oriented PC hardware company due to its past history. 90% of OCZ revenue is SSD.

Only 7% of SSD revenue is consumer and the rest of SSD revenue is high performance/server and data center/cloud computing enterprise.

Picture 2.png

The Deneva enterprise SSD and Vertex 3 server SSD products are the key drivers of 2011 growth.

“This growing market awareness and recognition has translated into solid business momentum. As every segment of our SSD business grew rapidly this quarter. In addition to our first Tier-1 OEM that is now shipping in volume, we have continued to achieve a number of design wins.

For example we received orders recently from a large Asia Pacific based telecom service provider for our Deneva series of SSDs and they’re expecting this client to start limited deployment this year, and to ramp considerably over the next 24 months.

We have recently received initial orders from our Deneva series with a new high performance computing OEM who we expect to roll out to a major cloud computing service provider over the next two quarters.

We have recently seen a sole source design in with our Deneva series to well known enterprise class storage system OEM, who we expect to ramp to mass production quantities in our fourth quarter. And though we are still determining potential revenue for this client, we’re excited in our ability to win and compete with this business.

We recently qualified our Deneva SSDs from Palo Alto networks, a provider of next generation enterprise firewalls, and we’re in the final stages of qualification and pricing with a large data center for our VeloDrive. Should this business come to fruition, it could represent a significant portion of our PCIe-based SSD sales through fiscal ’13.” – OCZ Q4 2011 conference call on 5/3/11 [Link]

New enterprise design wins mentioned on the conference call:

1) Tier 1 OEM shipping in volume
2) large Asia Pacific based telecom service provider (Devena enterprise SSD)
3) new high performance computing OEM rolling out to major cloud computing service provider over next two quarters
4) sole source design win (Devena enterprise SSD) to well known enterprise class storage system OEM
5) design win with Palo Alto networks for their next generation enterprise firewalls (Devena enterprise SSD)
6) large data center (enterprise PCIe VeloDrive)

OCZ clearly states design wins from #2 to #6 are NOT included in current guidance.

Picture3.png

At Friday’s close of $6.77, OCZ is trading at 0.9 CY2011 EV/sales growing at 99.5% y/y (SSD revenue +380% y/y). STEC is currently trading at 2.2Xs CY2011 EV/sales and really isn’t growing much if you take account the EMC inventory burn-off catch up.

OCZ has a similar SSD revenue growth ramp with Fusion-io in both absolute revenue numbers and y/y growth. Fusion-io is an enterprise SSD company which was named the #1 venture capital funded technology company in 2010 by the Wall Street Journal. Fusion-io’s products are higher end, higher ASP, and higher margin. However if it comes public at the rumored 10Xs sales valuation or any multiple significantly higher than OCZ/STEC, the relative valuation discrepancy will be stunning.

OCZ in the last quarter had a non-GAAP net profit of $1M ex-a $1.8 million loss associated with the discontinued memory business (there will be no more memory business after this quarter). The ramp of the enterprise SSD design wins in 2011 will help OCZ scale into its long-term model of 28-32% gross margins and 13-17% operating margins stated in their earnings press release.

Source of first 2 slides is the excellent OCZ presentation here: Link

Disclosure: The author is long OCZ at time of writing.

Categories: Blog

FA Notes May 6, 2011

May 6th, 2011 Comments off

April Non-farm payrolls 244K vs. 185K est.
Private payrolls 268K vs. 200K est.

Profile on Stevie Cohen Link

SNE – Sony said to be subpoenaed by New York over customer data breaches. Link

Today’s POMO $5-7 billion
EB+ PCLN HANS
Sell-side: Goldman downgrades PCLN

Categories: FA Observations