Archive

Archive for October, 2010

FA Notes Friday October 15, 2010

October 15th, 2010 Comments off

3:12 Reuters profiles Bill Ackman of Pershiing Square Capital. Link

2:15 FSLR STP LDK JASO YGE – Obama administration will investigate complaints that China is illegally subsidizing its clean energy industry. Link

10:00 August business inventories 0.6% vs. 0.4% estimate.

9:55 University of Michigan consumer sentiment 67.9 vs. 69 estimate.

9:07 STX – Bloomberg reports TPG Capital and KKR have submitted a $16/share offer to Seagate. Link

8:39 September retail sales 0.6% vs. 0.5% estimate. Retail sales ex-auto 0.4% vs. 0.4% estimate.

8:37 September CPI 0.1% vs. 0.2% estimate. CPI ex-food and energy 0.0% vs. 0.1% estimate.

8:36 October Empire State manufacturing 15.73 vs. 8.0 estimate.

8:29 Fed’s Ben Bernanke speech today. PDF

7:58 INFY – Infosys reported Q2 earnings of 65c vs. 61c estimate and revenue of $1.496B vs. $1.43B estimate. The company guided Q3 earnings to 66-67c vs. 64c estimate and revenue to $1.547-1.562B vs. $1.47B estimate.

7:50 GE – GE reported Q3 earnings of 29c vs. 27 estimate and revenue of $35.89B vs. $37.67B estimate.

7:49 MAT – Mattel reported Q3 earnings of 72c vs. 76 estimate and revenue of $1.83B vs. $1.94B estimate.

7:26 Food inflation in South Korea. The price of cabbage goes from $2.50 to $14 in the past month. Link

7:22 POT – Reuters is reporting China’s Sinochem has abandoned its Potash bid plan. Link

7:13 MU – PC DRAM contract prices continue to fall in early October. Link

Categories: FA Observations

FA Notes Wednesday October 13, 2010

October 13th, 2010 Comments off

6:46 YHOO – AllThingsD says Silver Lake Partners, News Corp. and AOL are looking at Yahoo as an acquisition candidate. Link

5:25 TSLA TM – Tesla announced it will receive $60 million from Toyota to develop a powertrain system for the electric RAV4.

“for the development of a validated powertrain system, including a battery, power electronics module, motor, gearbox and associated software, which will be integrated into an electric vehicle version of the RAV4″

4:05 APOL – Apollo reports Q4 earnings of 1.31 vs. 1.30 estimate and revenue of $1.26 billion vs. $1.26 billion. Enrollments are expected to be weak in Q1. The company is withdrawing FY2011 guidance.

“The decline in University of Phoenix new degreed enrollment experienced in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010 is expected to accelerate during the first quarter of fiscal 2011, resulting in a significant year-over-year decline.”

2:25 Wall Street Journal reporting U.S. led international forces in Afghanistan are helping facilitate contacts between Karzai government and Taliban.

2:15 ERTS – A disgruntled blogger who says he works for Electronic Arts says the Star Wars Old Republic MMO costs over $300 million. Link

1:57 SEC is considering a tighter band of 3-5% vs. the current 10% for the next phase of the circuit breaker program. They are also working on a limit-up and limit-down mechanism. Link

11:20 AAPL – Apple will have an October 20th event named “Back to Mac.” Analysts speculate the next version of the OS X operating system may be announced. Link

7:03 JPM – JP Morgan Chase reported Q3 earnings of $1.01 vs. 88c estimate and revenue of $24.3 billion vs. $24.48 billion estimate.

“Our mortgage delinquency trends remained relatively flat compared with the prior quarter, and we expect mortgage credit losses to remain at these high levels for the next several quarters. If economic conditions worsen, mortgage credit losses could trend higher. With respect to our credit card portfolio, delinquencies and net charge-offs continued to improve, and we reduced loan loss reserves by $1.5 billion this quarter as estimated losses declined. We expect credit card net charge-offs to continue to improve next quarter.

Categories: FA Observations

FA Notes Tuesday October 12, 2010

October 12th, 2010 Comments off

11:55 Bank of Japan governer Masaaki Shirakawa hinted that they might expand the 5 trillion yen ($61 billion) asset buying program. Link

11:33 Tim Geithner sees “no risk” of a global currency war. Link

9:29 RIO – Rio Tinto said at an investor conference that planned copper mining projects won’t be able to meet demand over the next decade. Link

9:16 AAPL – According to a Citibank analyst in a Taiwanese paper Hon Hai, the world largest electronics manufacturer, will raise prices in October for some of its clients including Apple. Link

5:58 SPY – The market closed up 38bps as it rallied on the quantitative easing comments in the Fed minutes.

4:35 INTC – Intel CFO comments on website says consumer market was weak while emerging markets and enterprise demand was strong. Guidance is below average seasonality due to consumer softness and customers reducing inventory ahead of Sandybridge in Q1.

4:16 INTC – Intel reports Q3 earnings of 52c vs. 50c estimate and revenue of $11.1B vs. $10.99B estimate. The company guided Q4 revenue to $11.0-11.8B vs. $11.33B est. Q3 gross margin was 66% and Q4 gross margin was guided to 67%.

4:03 CSX – CSX reports Q3 earnings of 1.08 vs. 1.04 est. and revenue of $2.7 billion vs. $2.66 billion est.

2:04 DELL – Maverick Capital portfolio manager speculates that Michael Dell may bid to buy his own computer company. Link

1:37 CSTR GME – Redbox is now offering videogame rentals for $2 a night. This isn’t good news for Gamestop. Link

1:05 ERTS – Early Medal of Honor review scores “a black eye for EA” says analyst. Link

12:58 AAPL – Bloomberg will profile Steve Jobs in a one-hour show this Thursday at 9PM. Link

12:40 RIG – White House signals that the deep water drilling ban will end “very soon.” Link

12:23 Twitter’s co-founder says the company will reach 1 billion users. Link

8:43 SYNA – Synaptics announced their CEO has decided to resign for “personal reasons.” The company expects Q1 revenue for $153 million vs. $152 million estimate and GAAP EPS of 50-52c.

8:30 NKE – CNBC reported yesterday that Reebok may lose its contract with the NFL to Nike. Link

8:26 PKX – Posco, the 3rd largest steel producer in the world, cut its full year profit guidance by 7% to 5.2 trillion won vs. 5.6 trillion won previously. Revenue was guided to $32.9 trillion won vs. $33.5 trillion won previously. 70% of sales are from the domestic Korean market. Link

8:13 TQNT – TriQuint Semiconductor pre-annouced positive numbers with Q3 revenue of $238 million and 27c EPS vs. estimates of $221 million and 20c of EPS.

8:06 AVP – UK Daily Mail reports L’Oreal may make an offer for Avon. Please note this is a tabloid paper equivalent to the National Enquirer. Link

8:02 KG PFE – Pfizer buying King Pharmaceuticals for $14.25 in cash.

7:48 WMT AAPL – Walmart is slated to sell the iPad in hundreds of stores this Friday. Link

Categories: FA Observations

FA Notes Monday October 11, 2010

October 11th, 2010 Comments off

4:00 SPY – The market closed around flat for the day on light trading volume and little news.

1:43 Jim Grant says quantitative easing is just money printing. Video

1:40 Soros doesn’t believe in standing in the way of a (Republican) avalanche during the November elections. Link

9:25 GYMB – Gymboree to be acquired by Bain Capital for $65.40/share in cash.

9:04 MSFT – Windows Phone 7 features video. Weak. Link

8:55 HRBN – CEO Tianfu Yang and Baring Private Equity Asia Group have offered $24 a share (20% premium) for the company. Link

8:02 Corn surges to two-year highs after USDA’s October 8th report which cut estimates for domestic corn output. Link

7:28 CSCO – Cisco’s consumer video conference system is set to launch in mid-Novembr. Umi will cost $599 and cost $24.99 per month. Link

7:20 POT – Reports that Canada’s Ontario Teachers’ Pension plan is talking to Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund to plot a competing bid for Potash. Potash is also considering a break-up plan such as selling assets to pay for a $70/share dividend in order to defend itself from the hostile take-out from BHP Billiton. Link

7:19 AAPL – Apple is growing share in the enterprise market thanks to iPad and iPhone app store. Link

7:09 AIG – According Reuters’ sources, AIG’s Asian life insurance business IPO had enormous demand from investors and covered five times the offered allocation. Link

Categories: FA Observations

FA Notes Friday October 8, 2010

October 8th, 2010 1 comment

7:28 SPY – The market closed up 77bps as investors priced in expectations of further quantitative easing by the Fed after a weak jobs number in the morning.

3:09 WYNN LVS MGM – Las Vegas strip gambling revenue rose 21% in August y/y. Link

2:00 Ken Feinberg and his law firm gets paid $850,000 a month to administer BP’s $20 billion fund set up to compensate oil spill victims. Link

12:10 ATMD – TD Ameritrade will offer commission free trades on 100 different ETFs chosen by Morningstar. Link

10:16 AAPL – According to the NYPost Apple is talking with major music labels about starting a unlimited access monthly subscription service. Link

9:52 Buffett hate companies owned by LBO funds because they don’t know the business. Link

9:22 JCP – Pershing Square files a 16.5% stake in J.C. Penny. Link

8:32 September non-farm payrolls -95K vs. -8K estimate. Non-farm private 64K vs. 85K estimate. Unemployment rate 9.6% vs. 9.7% estimate. Average hourly earnings 0.0% vs. 0.1% estimate. Average work-week 34.2 vs. 34.2.

6:53 The Fed St. Louis President, James Bullard, says the November meeting is a “tough call” as the risk of a double-dip recession has probably receded some in the least 6-8 weeks. Link

6:45 ADBE MSFT – Kara Swisher of AllThingsD calls Microsoft Adobe take-out chatter “non-sense” after talking to her sources in both companies. Link

Categories: FA Observations

FA Notes Thursday October 7, 2010

October 7th, 2010 Comments off

10:35 JPY – Japan’s finance minister, Yoshihiko Noda, vowed that the government would take “decisive action” to impede the rise of the yen vs. the U.S. dollar. He also said Japan’s position on foreign exchange would not change before or after the G7 meeting. Source

10:31 GME ATVI – Gamestop has put out a press release hyping the November 9th launch of Activision’s Call of Duty: Black Ops. Pre-orders are accelerating and are currently ahead of last year’s Modern Warfare 2 “GameStop is tracking to all-time, record reservations on Call of Duty: Black Ops. We are ahead of where we were with Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 last year, which previously set the industry standard.” Source

9:31 AAPL – The Apple iPad is replacing paper for the German parliament. Link

4:42 Kansas City Fed’s Hoenig still wants to raise rates. Link

4:34 AAPL – Apple is in a “quiet panic” over a new iPhone 4 problem (cracks in the glass back). Source

4:22 SPY – The market ended down 16bps. It initially rallied on a better than expected jobless claims number, but then faded in the morning and couldn’t really find a direction by the close.

4:11 AA – Alcoa reported Q3 earnings of 9c vs. 6c estimate and revenue of $5.3 billion vs. $5 billion estimate.

4:10 MU – Micron reported Q4 earnings of 32c vs 39c estimate and revenue of $2.49B vs. $2.66B estimate. The company also announced a 10 year cross-licensing patent deal with Samsung and will receive $275 million in cash.

2:36 Richard Fisher of the Dallas Fed is uncomfortable with more stimulus/easing. Link

1:47 POT – Potash CEO wants an offer that far exceeds $170 per share. Source

11:39 EMC STEC – According to TheRegister EMC has second-sourced enterprise flash hard-drives from Samsung. Source

11:28 ATVI – World of Warcraft hits 12 million users. Source

8:31 Jobless claims 445K vs. 450K estimate.

8:28 Reed Hastings, founder of Netflix, gives the newspaper industry 6 lessons to learn. Link

8:22 Samsung Electronics brought down Q3 operating income guidance to 4.8 trillion won vs. 5.03 trillion won estimate. Source

8:20 UK housing prices dropped 3.6% in September. Source

8:16 HTC, the Taiwan based smart-phone maker, reported Q3 net profits of $360 million, up 95% from a year ago. Revenue grew 124%. Source

8:12 AAPL – Ticonderoga Securities analyst, Brian White, says Apple could have sales of 45 million iPad units in 2011 according his supply chain contacts. Source

8:07 August industrial production in Germany went up 1.7% vs. 0.5% estimate Source

8:00 POT – Bloomberg reports Sinochem is struggling to get financing from state banks for a Potash bid. Link

7:52 ITMN – Good overview article on the key issues at InterMune right now Link

Categories: FA Observations

FA Notes Wednesday October 6, 2010

October 6th, 2010 Comments off

4:36 SPY – The market closed down -0.07% shaking off a bad ADP jobs report, a Fitch Ireland ratings downgrade, and a big sell-off in high multiple technology growth stocks off the EQIX miss yesterday.

2:30 AAPL VZ – Wall Street Journal is reporting Verizon will start selling the Apple iPhone on their network in early 2011. Moreover Apple is developing a new iPhone form-factor compared to the iPhone 4. Source

1:18 Top 15 most popular jobs in the U.S. with their salary numbers. Link

12:56 AAPL – Aerial video of Apple’s new $1 billion 500K square foot data-center in North Carolina. Link

12:49 NFLX SNE – AllThingsD reports Netflix has signed a deal with Sony which lets the company stream more movies in exchange for a 28-day DVD window. Source

12:19 Alan Fournier of Pennant Capital says when you go from deflation to inflation that is usually good for stocks. Source: Strategy Session CNBC

11:50 AMD – AMD’s CEO says the company is not for sale, but is willing to listen to any proposal. Source

11:17 COST – Costco conference call notes: expects continued food inflation in the coming months. Asia “very strong”, UK “little weak”, and Canada “very robust.” September wasn’t as good as August mainly due to TVs -10% (6% of sales). Electronics not great. Apparel, jewelry, and fresh foods doing fine. Computer business down double-digits. Don’t anticipate getting Apple iPad before Christmas.

9:22 AAPL – Apple TV is reportedly selling out in a number of major cities. Source

8:15 September ADP employment change -39K vs. +20K est.

8:09 HPQ – Quanta, Compal, and Wistron refused to accept lower margin 2011 notebook orders from Hewlett-Packard. Flextronics eventually got the deal. Source

8:02 MON – Monsanto reports Q4 earnings of -9c vs. -6c est. and revenue of $1.95 billion vs. $1.82 billion est. The company guides FY2011 earnings to $2.72-2.82 vs. $2.84 est. Source

7:42 Fitch cut Ireland’s credit rating to A+ from AA- with a negative outlook Source

7:40 September Challenger job cuts -44.1% y/y vs. -54.5% previously

7:34 COST – Costco reported Q4 earnings of 97c vs. 95c est. and revenue of $24.13 billion vs. $24.22 billion est. September comps were 5% and 4% ex-gas ex-currency. Source

Categories: FA Observations

FA Notes Tuesday October 5, 2010

October 5th, 2010 Comments off

7:30 SPY – The market rose 2.09% due to a surprise monetary easing by Japan overnight and a better than expected ISM services number.

4:30 EQIX – Equinix cut its Q3 revenue guidance to $328-330 million from $335-338 million due to higher than expected churn and discounting. Source

4:09 YUM – Yum! Brands reports Q3 EPS of 74c vs. 72c estimate and revenue of $2.86B vs. $2.87B estimate. The company raises full year guidance to $2.43-2.48 vs. $2.48 estimate. Source

2:48 Mexico is about to issue a 100 year bond for a yield of 6-6.125%. Source

1:32 George Soros says Germany threatens Europe with a “deflationary spiral.” Source

12:42 Charles Evans, President of Chicago Fed, says “We need more accommodation.” “If we were to do more large scale asset purchases, namely Treasurys, that would have a beneficial effect.” Regarding gold and agricultural commodities: “I don’t put a lot of weight on those indicators.” Source

12:01 PC – Panasonic will launch a new portable hand-held gaming system focusing on MMORPG on-line games. The device will be called “The Jungle.” SourceYouTube Marketing Video

10:00 September Non-manufacturing ISM index 53.2 vs. 52 estimate and 51.5 prior

8:34 WAG – Walgreen’s posted stronger than expected September same-store sales of +0.4% vs. -1.1% estimate. Source

8:25 STX WDC – Hard-drive makers expect fourth quarter shipments to be only flat or even down 1-2% q/q. Source

8:23 GLD – Jim Rogers says gold is going to $2000 in the next 10 years. He also like silver and rice. Source

8:19 Jerome Kerviel got a three year prison sentence and was also ordered to repay Societe Generale SA’s $6.8 billion for his trading loss. Source

8:11 NVDA – Nvidia has confirmed they are selling Nvidia-branded video cards (1st party) through Best Buy stores. Source

8:08 SNE – Developers are saying Sony PSP2 is slated for a 2011 holiday launch. The next generation portable handheld will have both physical and touch controls. Source

8:02 HPQ – Palm is rumored to be working on a no physical keyboard phone code-named “Mansion” with a 800×480 resolution screen. Source

7:56 Och-Ziff OZ Master Fund was up 1.3% in September and is up 4.2% YTD. Source

7:48 Bank of Japan announced a $418 billion monetary easing program and cut interest rates to 0%-0.1% from 0.1%. The government will also buy $60 billion of assets. (including ETFs!) WSJ Reuters

Categories: FA Observations

FA Notes Monday October 4, 2010

October 4th, 2010 1 comment

4:49 SPY – Ben Bernanke said his $1.7 trillion bond buying (aka money printing) was an “effective program.” He would support further asset purchases if the economy remained weak. Link

4:16 MOS – Mosaic reported Q1 earnings of 67c vs. 72c estimate and revenue of $2.19B vs. 1.97B estimate. “The recent upward momentum in potash prices will begin to be realized in fiscal third quarter results.” Link

3:23 V MA AXP – Attorney General’s statement on the credit card companies. Link

12:50 AXP – American Express says Department of Justice’s new approach will limit consumer choice, reduce competition, and curtail innovation. The company has no intention of settling the case. Source

12:23 V MA AXP – U.S. Department of Justice sues American Express for alleged anti-trust violation. Visa and Mastercard decide to settle. Source

12:13 V MA AXP – Visa, Mastercard, and American Express are weakening on reports Attorney General Eric Holder is planning a press conference this afternoon to discuss an “anti-trust enforcement matter.” Source

10:55 AIG – AIG CEO says he expects “a lot more demand than you think” for AIG stock. Source

10:47 AMZN AAPL TGT – Both Amazon.com and Target have begun selling the Apple iPad. Source

10:45 BKS – Barnes and Noble launches pubit!, an e-book self-publishing platform. Source

10:03 ATVI – Blizzard announced that World of Warcraft Cataclysm will launch for $39.99 on December 7th. Source

10:01 August Factory Orders -0.5% vs. -0.3% est. August Pending Home Sales +4.3% m/m

9:24 MU – PC DRAM memory prices are down 5-6% in late September due to weaker than expected notebook demand. Source

8:56 ISLN – Bloomberg reports Isilon Systems has hired Qatalyst Partners to seek bidders for a possible sale. Source

8:49 Greenlight Capital was up 2.7% in September and 6.1% YTD. Source Third Point was up 3.9% for September and 19.1% YTD. Source

8:46 New York Times had a good profile over the weekend on Facebook’s chief operating officer, Sheryl Sandberg. Source

8:44 GENZ – Sanofi decides to go hostile with their $18.5 billion bid for Genzyme. Source

8:38 SLE – NYPost reports Sara Lee rejected a $12 billion buy-out offer from KKR. Source

8:35 MSFT – Goldman Sachs downgraded Microsoft from Buy to Neutral and lowered their price target from $38 to $32. Source

8:08 V MA – WSJ reports Visa and Mastercard are near a anti-trust settlement with the Justice Department potentially giving merchants more flexibility to go with cheap forms of plastic. The settlement will not result in a big financial hit. Source (sub)

7:57 SNDK – Digitimes reports contract prices of 32GB and 64GB flash memory have fallen 5-6% and 9-10% in late September. Prices are close to production costs. If prices fall any more, manufacturers will be pressured to reduce output. Source

Categories: FA Observations