Micron (MU) November 2009 Q1 Earnings Notes
Press Release
-revenue $1.74B (1.6B est) +24.1% y/y. EPS 23c (7c est)
-DRAM products +50% q/q due to 25% increase in sales volume and 21% increase in ASP
-NAND flash +21% q/q due to 16% increase in sales volume and 5% increase in ASP
-gross margin for memory products improved to 27% from 12% last quarter
-generated $326 million of operating cash flow
Conference Call
-memory products 38% q/q, imaging -13% q/q
-first quarter of profitability in 12 quarters
-Q2 guidance: DRAM cost reduction high single digits, bit production increase low teens. NAND cost reduction high single digits, bit production flat due to full production at 34nm process
-$215 million FCF in the quarter
-demand remains strong into CY2010
-allocation challenges in supporting strategic customers
-shift to DDR3 +60% q/q. 40% of core DRAM bit shipments
-mobile business +60% q/q
-pleased with Lexar retail and Crucial e-commerce businesses
-see strong retail business through holiday season
-2010 smartphones projected to ship with 64GBs of NAND flash
Q&A
-2010 NAND nm shrink, not ready to give out numbers
-core DRAM 45% of revenue, specialty 13%, NAND 33%, 2% royalty
-first 60-90 days of 2009 about 1/3 of world’s capacity went off-line (bankruptcy, etc.)
-all capacity that could come back is back on-line. Samsung and Micron probably best position in DRAM and NAND
-no new fabs under construction for memory business as of this moment. first time this is the case since he’s entered business 27 years ago
-upside driven by supply constraints, general economy still not great. If economy improves, that’s the opportunity in 2010
-2010 forecasts for bit growth 30-50%
-2009 2.7GB/system, 2010 Q1 well over 3GB/system. Netbooks drive that down. Pretty favorable and better than forecast 6 months ago
-multiple upside forecasts in server business customers “across the board”
-for 2010 flash industry supply up 80-90%
-Micron RealSSD progress with key OEM design wins (desktop right now)
-PC unit growth assumption of 12-16% in 2010 from customers
Net-net
-maxed out on NAND flash production at 34nm
-PC and server businesses demand rocking
-interestingly said general economy still not great. The recent upside driven by supply constraints as 1/3 of industry capacity went off-line at beginning of 2009 and higher GB/device (Windows 7 upgrade cycle, smartphones). If economy improves, that’s the opportunity for 2010
-not seeing traditional seasonal March quarter demand pull-back