Amazon.com (AMZN) Q3 September 2009 Earnings Notes
Press Release
-revenue $5.45 billion +28% y/y +29% ex-FX (5.03B est), EPS 45c (33c est)
-FCF $1.92 billion trailing 12 months +98% y/y
-operating income $251 million +62% y/y
-Kindle #1 bestselling item in terms of units and dollars. Latest generation shipped this week for $259 in 100 countries
-North America media +20% y/y, electronics +50% y/y
-International media +32% y/y, electronics +64% y/y
-Consolidated media +26% y/y, electronics +55% y/y
-$3.12 net cash/share, $4.45 FCF/share trailing 12 months
Guidance
-Q4 $8.125-9.125 billion (8.11B est), operating income $300-425 million including $100 million stock-based compensation
Slides
-ROIC 50% in Q3 with long-term expectation of triple digits
-revenue mix: media 54%, electronics 43%, other 3%
Conference call
-very broad based acceleration within media category Q2 to Q3
-did not comment specifically on videogames when asked (I noticed that had a buy 2 and get 3 games promotion in Q3)
-very good leverage in operating costs
Net-net
-A big beat and guide-up report. Management admitted y/y comps were easier as the last few weeks of Q3-2008 fell off due to the financial crisis
-Expanding upon this theme if economy remain stable, Amazon has easy comps from last year’s Q4 and should also be helped by the weakening U.S. dollar
-One exasperated sell-sider whined on how management guidance was way conservative last quarter (he was sand-bagged)
-With $5.56 FCF/share power a year from now, at $107 after-hours the FCF multiple is 19Xs. Not overly expensive for the dominant online retailer leader that can probably grow 20%+ for a few years