Archive for May, 2009

Mutual Fund Flows – Inverse Indicator

May 31st, 2009 No comments


Notice that mutual fund flows are an inverse indicator for every major high and low in the stock market. No, the timing is not perfect every time. However at every major high and low, I bet that month the flows are inversely correlated in size.

-In May 2008, flows were strongly positive and the market peaked and crashed the rest of the year.
-In October and November 2008, flows were very negative and the market bottomed ahead of a large 2 month rally.
-In January 2009, flows were positive and the market sold off hard till early March.
-In March 2009, flows were negative and the market bottomed and rallied.
-In April and May 2009, flows are once again strongly positive. Hmmm, what’s next?

Categories: News

Robin Hood Foundation Videos – Paul Tudor Jones, Roberto Testimony, Mayor Bloomberg, Tom Brokaw

May 31st, 2009 No comments

Paul Tudor Jones is simple THE man, my hero, and role-model. Watch and be inspired. Roberto’s testimony made me tear up.

Other Robin Hood Videos – Link

Categories: News

Tech Specs of Sony PSP Go! and First Look Video

May 30th, 2009 No comments

-16 gigabytes of flash memory
-no physical UMD drive, digital downloads only
-Memory Stick Micro slot
-3.8 inch screen
-Bluetooth support
-43% lighter than PSP-3000
-new PSP Gran Turismo, Jak & Daxter, Little Big Planet, and Metal Gear Solid titles on their way
-Old UMD PSPs will still be sold along-side
-release date is this Fall

Categories: News

2009 Ira Sohn Conference Stock Picks

May 28th, 2009 No comments

Peter Thiel, Clarium Capital: fade recovery, commodity inflation, deflation of owned assets

Joseph Healey, HealthCor Partners: Long Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX), Long Hologic (HOLX), Long Life Technologies (LIFE)

Mark Kindgon, Kingdon Capital: Long Bank of America (BAC)

Steve Mandel, Lone Pine Capital: Long Strayer Education (STRA)

Jim Chanos, Kynikos Associates: Short for-profit education companies, Short high margin health-care companies like Lincare Holdings (LNCR)

Lee Hobson, Highside Capital: Long Millicon International (MICC), Short Ritchie Bros. (RBA)

David Einhorn, Greenlight Capital: Short Moody’s (MCO)

Categories: News

2008 Ira Sohn Hedge-Fund Stock Picks Results

May 25th, 2009 3 comments

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A year ago, famous portfolio managers presented their stock picks during the Ira Sohn charity event. The only one that did well was was David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital. Many value investors such as Michael Price, Rich Pzena, and Bill Miller got their heads handed to them to say the least.

These results prove that even the most famous managers can get it wrong and it’s pure folly to follow blindly. The 2009 event will be on May 27th.

Categories: News

NPD U.S. April 2009 Videogame Sales

May 15th, 2009 No comments

Software: $510.74M (-23%)
Hardware: $391.63M (-8%)
Accessories: $129.45M (-15%)
Total Games: $1.03B (-17%)

Nintendo DS: 1.04M (+151%)
Wii: 340,000 (-52%)
Xbox 360: 175,000 (-7%)
PlayStation 2: 172,000 (+34%)
PlayStation 3: 127,000 (-32%)
PSP: 116,000 (-40%)

Title / Publisher / Units**
1 Wii Fit w/ Balance Board (Wii) / Nintendo / 471,000
2 Pokemon Platinum (DS) / Nintendo / 433,000
3 Mario Kart Wii with Wheel (Wii) / Nintendo / 210,000
4 Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii) / Nintendo / 170,000
5 The Godfather II (360) / EA / 155,000
6 Resident Evil 5 (360) / Capcom / 122,000
7 New Super Mario Bros. (DS) / Nintendo / 119,000
8 Mario Kart DS (DS) / Nintendo / 112,000
9 Guitar Hero Aerosmith (360) / Activision Blizzard / 110,000
10 The Godfather II (PS3) / EA / 91,000

It was a heinous month for current generation hardware units with Wii, PS3, and Xbox 360 posting paltry numbers. The economy is finally hitting this industry in full force. Nintendo DS units were up big due to the release of the DSi SKU. PS2 units did well with the recent price cut to $99.

It’s pretty sad to see New Super Mario Bros. and Mario Kart DS continue to dominate the charts years after their release. Guitar Hero Aerosmith probably made the top 10 because it went on fire-sale at $10 at many retailers.

So what do videogame stocks do off these punkish numbers? Rally of course. TTWO was up 7.6% on the news Icahn had bought more shares. ATVI was flattish. GME up 1.93% rebounding off a big correction in recent weeks. ERTS was up 4.7% on the news it actually had a top 10 selling game for once.

Categories: News

Stepping on the Gas Pedal Type Market

May 10th, 2009 No comments

Presented without further comment. Source

Uri Landesman, head of international equities at ING Investment Management, bought stocks in Russia and Brazil last week. Currently, his funds have about 30% of their assets invested in emerging markets — his largest proportion ever.

“I’m really stepping on the gas pedal,” he said.

Categories: News

Recommended Posts

May 9th, 2009 No comments

-“Trust your Stuff” Investing Link

-Annie Duke Poker Tips that are Applicable to Trading Link

-Sun Tzu Art of Trading Link

-David Einhorn Investment Strategy Link

-Seth Klarman Baupost Group Notes Link

-Investment Advice from Charlie Munger Link

-Warren Buffett Interview Notes Link

-Alice Schroeder Q&A Notes, Buffett Biographer Link

-John Paulson 2008 Year End Report Notes Link

-Buffet’s Holy Grail of Investing Link

-Reminiscences of a Stock Operator Quotes Link

-Lessons from Paul Tudor Jones Link

-Glenn Greenberg of Chieftain Capital Notes Link

-Warren Buffett Investment Strategy Simplified Link

Categories: News

David Einhorn Investment Strategy – PM of Greenlight Capital

May 9th, 2009 No comments

-Looks for situations where mis-pricing is large and risk is small
-He wants to understand why it is cheap and misunderstood
-Buy it cheap and don’t worry about price targets
-If he decides he is wrong on something in terms of why he bought it, he exits. Period
-Never invent reasons to hold a position if original reasons are no longer valid
-Write-up outline: what’s it worth to a value buyer, market position, profitability/cash flow. Is it a great business? What’s the FCF with normalized margins 2 years out? Why is it misunderstood? What is the opportunity? Do a valuation and business analysis of each segment of the business, comparison to other companies in the sector, financial engineering potential?
-Einhorn is known to be very disciplined at sticking to what he is good at. He is excellent at figuring out the 3 key drivers to analyze, has the courage of his convictions, and is active on the short side
-“There are lots of smart people out there. I don’t think all of them have the ability to read the rest of the players as well as David. He can actually see how stocks move on different pieces of news and judge what facts the market seems to be acting on. Then he assesses what analytical edge he has over the other players”

Sources: articles on David Einhorn and interviews with people that know him

Categories: Articles

Investment Advice from Charlie Munger

May 5th, 2009 No comments

Warren Buffett didn’t really hit his stride until he met his investment partner Charlie Munger. He is famous for converting the best investor in history from last puff cigar butt value investing to buying great franchise businesses for the long-term. Here are some general investment tips from Charlie:

-Bet very seldom
-You have to figure out where you’ve got an edge. And you’ve got to play within your own circle of competence
-Bet big when you have the odds in your favor and know something is mis-priced. Berkshire, all the billions of gains, top 10 insights account for most of it
-What determines behavior are incentives of the decision maker. Management matters
-Ultimate no-brainer, will find a few times in a lifetime, huge untapped pricing power they’re are not using
-Look for superb business hidden inside a bad mess, once you cut out the folly, big winner. (Geico)
-“Good jockeys will do well on good horses, but not broken-down nags.”

Categories: Articles