Buffett Calling a Bottom, However He is Sometimes a Few Months Off
Lots of news today on Warren Buffett buying American stocks for his personal portfolio from CNBC and this editorial he wrote for the New York Times. He has done this before in 1974, 1999, etc., where he tells people publicly in his witty way now is the time to buy or sell.
Buffett is almost always right, but let me clarify… in the slightly longer-term. He is usually a few month off from the exact top or bottom. For example, he went negative on the market in November 1999. The market topped out in March of 2000. He started selling his Petrochina (PTR) stake in mid-July of 2007. Petrochina rallied for a 3 more months another 66% from his initial sell and peaked on October 31, 2007.
His best call was October 1974, where he pretty much nailed the exact bottom in his an interview with Forbes. When asked about what he felt about the stock market he said, “Like an oversexed guy in a whorehouse,” he shot back. “This is the time to start investing.”