Archive for September, 2008

Herman Miller (MLHR) Q1-09 August 2008 Notes

September 23rd, 2008 No comments

September 18, 2008 9:30am
-Started alliance with POSH Office systems and selling to Costco
-New Embody chair coming out soon
-West coast more difficult. Southwest too due to housing issues. Softer levels in London and Japan. Financial services sector weak especially investment banking
-They started with 20 Costco stores and expanded it to 40 with 2 chairs. They believe they will go nation-wide
-POSH has one of the best distribution networks in China

Categories: News

Darden Restaurants (DRI) Q1-09 August 2008 Notes

September 23rd, 2008 No comments

September 17, 2008 8:30am
-Knapp-Track industry sales -3.7% for the quarter ex-Darden. Olive Garden same-store up 2.4%. Red Lobster -3.7%. Longhorn -4.9%. Capital Grille -8.6%. Bahama Breeze -3.7%
-Wage inflation 2-3%. Guide to 0-1% same-store sales growth in FY2009
-Difficult June, more difficult July, better consumer in August, but not great
-100% company operated system
-Historically pricing increase is 2-3% a year, this year it will be the upper end of that range

Categories: News

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator Quotes

September 20th, 2008 No comments

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”

Comparing Paper Trading vs. Real Trading
“Are you a good shot?” “I can snap the stem of a wine glass at twenty paces” “That’s all well, but can you snap the stem of a wine glass while the wine glass is pointing a loaded pistol straight at your heart?”

“A man must believe in himself and his judgement if he expects to make a living at this game. That is why I don’t believe in tips. If I buy stocks on Smith’s tip, I must sell those stocks on Smith’s tip. I am depending on him”

“Speculation is a hard and trying business, and a speculator must be on the job all the time or he’ll soon have no job to be on”

“The more I made, the more I spent. This is the usual experience with most men. No, not necessarily with easy-money pickers, but with every human being who is not a slave of the hoarding instinct. Some men, like old Russell Sage, have the money-making and the money-hoarding instinct equally well developed, and of course they die disgustingly rich”

“If a stock doesn’t act right, don’t touch it; because being unable to tell precisely what is wrong, you cannot tell which way it is going. No diagnosis, no prognosis. No prognosis, no profit”

“The big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements-that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend”

“It was never thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!”

“Me who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn”

“He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight. Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me”

“Without faith in his own judgement no man can go very far in this game. That is about all I have learned-to study general conditions, to take a position and stick to it”

“The big men of the Street are as prone to wishful thinkers as the politicians or the plain suckers. I myself can’t work that way. In a speculator such an attitude is fatal.”

“Sell down to the sleeping point (own so much cotton, can’t sleep thinking about it, wearing me out)”

“It sounds very easy to say that all you have to do is to watch the tape, establish your resistance points and be ready to trade along the line of least resistance as soon as you determined it”

“Prices, like everything else, move along the line of least resistance”

“A man cannot be convinced against his own convictions, but he can be talked into a state of uncertainty and indecision, which is even worse, for that means that he cannot trade with confidence and comfort”

“It is simple arithmetic to prove that it is a wise thing to have the big bet down only when you win, and when you lose to lose only a small exploratory bet”

“Of all the speculative blunders there are few greater than trying to average a losing game”

“Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit”

“He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope his profit may become a big profit”

“What does a man do when he sets out to make the stock market pay for a sudden need? Why, he merely hopes. He gambles.. he is after immediate profit. He cannot afford to wait.. he hugs the fallacy that he is merely taking a fifty-fifty chance.. particularly on purchases made at the height of the bull market just before a moderate reaction. It certainly is no way to trade”

“A great many smashes by brilliant men can be traced directly to the swelled head – an expensive disease everywhere to everybody, but particularly in Wall Street to a speculator”

“Whenever I have lost money in the stock market I have always considered that I have learned something; that if I have lost money I have gained experience, so that the money really went for a tuition fee”

“A trader.. must also know himself and provide against his own weaknesses”

“The game does not change and neither does human nature”

“A man does not swear eternal allegiance to either the bull or the bear side. His concern lies with being right”

“Another thing to bear in mind is this: Never try to sell at the top. It isn’t wise. Sell after a reaction if there is no rally”

Categories: Articles

Best Buy (BBY) Q2-09 August 2008 Notes

September 17th, 2008 No comments

September 16, 2008 10AM EST
-Employee retention is all-time high as turnover is 49% last 12 months. Never been below 50% before
-4.2% same-store, 5.3% U.S.
-Strength in notebooks, gaming, TVs, and acceleration in Best Buy Mobile
-International weaker than expected. Canada 1% and China 7%
-Expect 2H of FY to have 1-2% comp store sales
-Flat panel TV price declines were 13% and 14% in first two quarters

Categories: News

Dolby Laboratories (DLB) Q3-08 Call Notes

September 16th, 2008 No comments

July 31, 2008 5PM
-DVD playback software in Microsoft Home Premium contain Dolby technology
-In North America, Dolby Digital is mandated audio standard fro digital terrestrial broadcast. By February 2009, TVs must be connected to ATSC tuner which contain Dolby technology
-15% of U.S. households still rely on OTA broadcasts
-South Korea has adopted the ATSC standard
-Japan has adopted the AAC audio format, which Dolby gets royalties
-Dolby Digital is the mandated audio format for Blu-ray
-Strong performance driven by consumer notebooks that ship with DVD software
-Dolby Mobile revenue opportunity set to begin in 2009
-ASP on licensing side is un-related to ASP of TV
-For 2008, PC will rise to 40% of revenue vs. 35% in 2007. CE will be under 30% vs. 35% in 2007. Broadcast 15-20%, but increasing y/y

Categories: News

Avery Dennison (AVY) Q2-2008 Earnings Call

September 9th, 2008 No comments

July 22, 2002 2pm EST
-Reducing outlook for the year due to rapidly rising raw material costs and expectation of continued weak economic conditions
-Raising prices and will do so again later this year if inflation continues to accelerate
-RFID revenue quadrupled
-Organically US down 4%, Europe up 4%, Asia up 4%, Latin America up 5%
-Raising their estimate of raw material inflation fro 2008 from $70M to $110M
-Currency benefits the top line by 5%
-2/3rd of business is outside the USA
-15% of business related to housing, automotive, and other cyclical segments
-Most of their customers say this is the worst retail recession in 20 years

Categories: News

tw telecom (TWTC) June Q2-08 Earnings Call

September 9th, 2008 No comments

August 12th, 2008 11AM
-new name and branding
-enterprise revenue grew 4% q/q, total revenue 3%. 24 straight quarters of enterprise growth
-lost about $1M in revenue due to the mortgage industry
-small customer accounts below $500 a month are 3% of revenue
-see increased customer churn from very small customers as well as pockets of pressure in local markets

Categories: News

Jim Rogers Interview with Money Morning

September 6th, 2008 No comments

-Last 200 years America’s elected politicians built up $5 trillion in debt. In last few weekend, some un-elected officials added another $5 trilion
-When British empire declined there were many people who rang the bell and said we’re making too many mistakes, but nobody listened until it was too late
-When Spain and Rome were in decline, I’m sure there were people who noticed that things were going wrong
-Bernanke is a very-narrow-gauged guy. He’s spent his whole intellectual career studying the printing of money and we have now given him the keys to the printing presses. All he knows how to do is run them
-McChesney Martin was the guy who said the job of a good central banker was to take away the punchbowl when the party starts getting good. Now the Fed when the party starts getting out of control – pours more moonshine in
-Things got so bad in the U.K. in the 1930s they made it an act of treason to use anything but the sterling and by 1939 they had full-exchange controls. By mid-70s the U.K. was bankrupt, they could not sell long-term government bonds. This is a country that in 2-3 generations before was the richest, most powerful country in the world
-Rogers likes China long-term

Categories: News

Legg Mason (LM) Q1 FY2009 – June 2008 Quarter

September 6th, 2008 No comments

July 25th, 2008 10AM
-AUM $923B down 3% q/q and 7% y/y. Equity outflows of $11.6B vs. $17.2B last quarter
-Permal fund of funds seeing flows of $300-400 million a month vs. $1B before. AUM now $39B
-Royce’s average fees close to 100bps
-On equity side, no single manager contributes more than 10% to core operating results

Categories: News

Pzena Investment Management (PZN) Q2 June 2008

September 5th, 2008 1 comment

July 30th, 2008 10AM
-Q2 was awful as “fear gripped the marketplace… rational analysis has been discarded and emotion is driving securities prices”
-Valuation spread between financials and commodities is the highest in 55 years
-Buying financial companies at 2-3 times normal earnings power
-Had $700 million of net inflows
-AUM declined by 19% during the quarter from $20.4B to $18.5B. $2.6B was through negative performance and $700M of net inflows

Categories: News