First Adopter

-thinks downturn will be “longer and deeper”. Won’t be better five months from now
-Freddie and Fannie in a practical sense “don’t have any net worth”. From standpoint of independent entity “game is over”
-OFHEO was setup by Congress in 1992. It’s sole job was to regulate Freddie and Fannie with 200 employees and [...]

Conference Call
-5 of top 10 trade-in weeks all time in Q2 and June was a new monthly record as the consumer is budget-stretched
-used sales up 32%
-27% of sales is international
-Game Informer magazine is over 3.5 million subscribers
-Q3 guidance of flat to up 2% same-store, Q4 8-10%
-building up used inventory for Q3 and Q4
-bigger Wii allocation, [...]

Hershey put our a press release announcing it will raise prices about 10% across its entire domestic product line. Hershey raised prices on average of 13% for one-third of their line back in January according to the WSJ.
“Market prices for ingredients such as cocoa, corn sweeteners, sugar and peanuts are up 20 to 45 percent [...]

Press Release
-EPS 39c vs. 32c est. (20% beat). Revenue $64.2M vs. $50.2M est. (28% beat)
-Revenue was up 78.9% y/y. Earnings up 86% y/y. U.S. wholesale business was up 57.3% y/y. International wholesale business was up 66.3% y/y. Consumer direct sales (includes their branded stores) was up 170.5% y/y. This is [...]

Conference Call
-EPS grew 37%, Sales 10% to $21.3 billion, organic sales 5%, organic volume 4%. Pricing added 3%. FX added 6%
-Higher commodity and energy costs impacted the quarter by over 300bps. Gross margin decreased 160bps
-Beauty grew 11% with organic up 4%. Baby care up 10%
-Some brands mentioned: Olay Skin Care, Pantene, Head & [...]

Conference Call
-energy costs and commodity inflation have become bigger challenges
-Grew Coors Light sales 4% globally
-U.K. economy is weakening, in the first 5 weeks of Q3 sales have decreased at a mid-single digit rate from a year ago
-May and June were weak, so competitors chased volume (lowered pricing - aggressive discounting)
-cost inflation of mid-single digit increases [...]

Press Release
-Revised 2008 revenue composition to include the film production segment
-Iron Man ($571M) and The Incredible Hulk ($246M) had $817M of combined global box office
-$122M in cash
-Schedule: Iron Man 2 - April 2010, Thor June 2010, Captain America May 2011, Avengers July 2011
-Licensed Movies: X-Men Origins: Wolverine May 2009 by Fox, Punisher: War Zone by [...]

Press Release
-Activision stand-alone revenue $654.2M, 32% y/y. EPS of 23c non-GAAP. Vivendi Games 223 million euros and 42 million euros in EBITA
-World of Warcraft is at 10.9 million players
-Blizzard pipeline includes World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King, Starcraft II, and Diablo II
-September 2008 guidance: $620M non-GAAP. non-GAAP EPS 8c
-December 2008 [...]

Press Release
-Revenue of $137.6M. Non-GAAP ex-deferred revenue was $121.1M
-Key titles were WALL-E, Wii Big Beach Sports, WWE Smackdown vs. Raw 2008, and MX vs. ATV Untamed
-EPS -0.38 per share
-Future lineup: de Blob in September, Saints Row 2 and WWE vs. Raw 2009 in December quarter, Red Faction Guerrilla, Darksiders: Wrath of War, and WWE [...]

-Never play macho man with the market. Never over-trade relative to the equity in your account
-his first mentor has “steel hard emotional control”
-always liquidate half his position below new highs or lows
-after having 60-70% draw-down, he was so depressed he nearly quit. “Mr. Stupid, why risk everything on one trade? Why not make [...]