July 2nd, 2009  | Categories: Market Journal

Picture 1.png

-Non-farm payrolls -467k vs. -350k estimate
-Unemployment rate -9.5% vs. -9.6% estimate
-Jobless claims 614k vs. 619k estimate

Market puked on the large non-farm payrolls jobs number miss.

-Sirius CEO getting a raise after stock down 95% Link
-Warren Buffett giving advice to Girl Scouts Link
-Internal AT&T memo says best ever iPhone sales day Link
-Treasury PPIP plan starts with only $20 billion Link
-Great Michael Lewis article on what really happened at AIG Link
-Warren Buffett selling mattresses Link
-Coping with losing a job and finding a new one psychologically Link

Picture 2.png

July 1st, 2009  | Categories: Market Journal

Picture 1.png
-June ADP Employment Report -473K vs. -395K estimate. May revised to -485K from -532K
-ISM Mfg Index 44.8 vs. 45.0, 42.8 prior

The market opened up even thought the ADP jobs number was worse than economists expected. After a brief dip at 10AM after the tiny ISM miss, the market rallied hard into 10:32AM, but then sold off the rest of the day.

-After a simple phone-call from a Hawaii senator who owned shares, small bank gets $135 million in aid (another example of when the government gets involved in economy, the political process corrupts and picks winners and losers based on connections) Link
-Bill Gross July 2009 Outlook Link
-83 stocks up 100% in First Half of 2009 Link
-Rant on Research in Motion’s Future Link
-Successful 23 year old hedge-fund manager profile Link
-Goldman Sachs front-running clients? Link

June 30th, 2009  | Categories: Market Journal

Picture 1.png
-S&P Case Shiller home price index -18.1% y/y in April vs. -18.7% in March. Estimate was -18.6% y/y
-Consumer confidence 49.3 vs. 57 estimate
-Soros acts like a jerk to Jim Rogers Link
-Twitter news filtering for stocks Link
-Blue and Green optical illusion Link
-We spent $1 trillion and tons of blood to free Iraq for China to get the oil. Great! Link
-Corn prices in free-fall Link

Market was about flat in pre-market. It ticked higher on the better than expected home price data, but sold off hard from 10am to 11am on the worse than expected consumer confidence number. It then meandered around in a range for the rest of the day until the last 40 minutes where it rallied into Q2’s end.

Looking back at June, tech and oil out-performed. Big losers were food commodities, gold, silver, and emerging markets.

June 29th, 2009  | Categories: Market Journal

Picture 1.png
-California to issue IOUs Link
-Best Advice Buffett ever got Link

June 29th, 2009  | Categories: Market Journal

Picture 1.png

June 25th, 2009  | Categories: Market Journal

Picture 1.png
-Russians offering pirate hunting cruises Link
-Louis Gerstner wants to tax short-term capital gains at 80% Link

June 24th, 2009  | Categories: Market Journal

Picture 1.png
-Durable goods orders +1.8% m/m vs. -0.5% estimate
-Comscore Top 50 U.S. site ranking Link
-Japan exports -40.9% y/y in May, more than April’s -39.1% Link
-Citigroup wants to pay higher salaries to get around lower bonus rules Link

Market rallied on better than expected durable goods numbers. However the market sold off after the Fed announced no changes to its $300 billion Treasury buying program (AKA print money out of thin air) and a report that a House Republican thinks Fed and Bernanke are covering up the Bank of America / Merrill Lynch forced merger incident.

The dollar also rallied on the Fed not adding more to the Treasury buying program, which in turn caused sell-offs on various weak dollar plays such as oil and gold.

June 23rd, 2009  | Categories: Market Journal

Picture 1.png
-Existing Home Sales 4.77M vs. 4.85M estimate

June 23rd, 2009  | Categories: Market Journal

Picture 1.png

June 21st, 2009  | Categories: Market Journal

Picture 1.png

June 18th, 2009  | Categories: Market Journal

Picture 1.png
-Jobless claims 608K vs. 610K estimate

June 17th, 2009  | Categories: Market Journal

Picture 1.png

-CPI m/m 0.1% vs. 0.3% estimate, ex-food and energy 0.1% vs. 0.1% estimate

Market sold off in the morning, rallied mid-day, and then sold off in the last hour to close roughly flat with tech out-performing. Fedex reported a big revenue miss and guided next quarter’s earnings down 30-45c vs. 68c estimate due to higher fuel charges and weak shipping volumes. The CFO said he expects next two quarters to be difficult, but don’t worry the Q1 CY2010 is going to be an up y/y GDP quarter. He must have some crystal ball.

The company also said the environment was “frankly” worse than they expected. Best Buy said May industry sales was worse than they expected too, but don’t worry if we just say green shoots! green shoots! enough times someday it will come true.

June 16th, 2009  | Categories: Market Journal

Picture 1.png

-ICSC-Goldman Store Sales -1.5% y/y vs -0.8% previous
-Housing Starts 532k vs. 500k est.
-PPI 0.2% M/M vs. 0.7% est.
-Redbook -4.8% y/y vs. -4.4% previous
-Newsflash: short-selling restrictions are super dumb Link
-State Department told Twitter to stay up because of Iran Link

The market started up slightly due to benign PPI data and better than expected housing start numbers. However around 11:15am, the market started selling off on the reality of weak retail numbers. Best Buy on their conference call admitted the consumer electronics industry sales were softer than they anticipated and May was the worst month in terms of comp sales.

Will negative fundamental retail sales data-points matter to this market now? That’s the question. We have quadruple witching this Friday and at the end of the month Q2 performance madness to contend with also.

June 15th, 2009  | Categories: Market Journal

Picture 1.png
-Good interview video on CNN with Michael Lewis Link

The market sold off hard the first hour and a half of trading and hung around that level until the close on no real new news.

June 14th, 2009  | Categories: Investing

033_graphic.jpg
Source: NY Post. Hat-tip to StockJockey

June 14th, 2009  | Categories: Politics

Republicans are in the doldrums today with a popular President with great political skill and charisma. This is a President that has already signed the largest deficit spending bills in the history of the Republic with $787 billion stimulus bill, $410 billion omnibus pork-barrel bill, and now with a $3.5 trillion 2010 budget proposal that will solidify trillion dollar-plus annual deficits for years to come.

Let’s not even mention the massive increases in energy taxes through cap and trade estimated to be at least $600 billion, a move toward universal healthcare that will cost trillions more, and move to raise taxes on corporations with foreign subsidiaries, which will drive jobs overseas.

Let’s remember the worst budget deficit ever was $455 billion in 2008. We are going to be near a $2 trillion deficit in 2009 and probably in similar territory for years to come thanks to Obama-nomics. Our national debt will double from $10 trillion to $20 trillion in just a few years at this pace.

With all this spending, Obama has the gall to go in front of the cameras and brag about the $16 billion of spending cuts he found and pushing for “pay as you go” budgeting rule, which is nothing more than a gimmick that has been waived for years. Of course if the paygo rule even passes, all the trillions in spending mentioned above will already be exempt.

With this being said as Obama becomes the definition of the “tax and spend liberal”, Republicans just don’t have a leader right now.

Sarah Palin is a joke. Sure she can read a speech off a teleprompter well, but it’s obvious she’s an intellectual lightweight and can’t handle policy questions under the media limelight.

Newt Gingrich simply has no chance of being elected with his political divisive rhetoric like the Hispanic Supreme Court Justice nominee is a “a racist”. What the hell is he thinking? Republicans need the Hispanic vote. Newt also has too much baggage from the 1990s with his hypocrisy going after Bill Clinton’s adultery, when he was also par-taking the same thing.

Romney simply has no charisma and doesn’t have any political savvy. His speeches are dull and come across as inauthentic.

Jindal, the great Indian-American Obama story-like hope, struck out swinging in his first national speech. He doesn’t have the political speaking chops and has been caricatured by the media has Mr. Rogers.

Huckabee is an “aw shucks” ex-preacher that can tell a good joke and a sermon or two, but he simply doesn’t come off as a good manager and policy person.

After the George Bush disaster, the Republicans need someone that screams competence and authenticity. The only person I believe that will give the Republicans a shot in 2012 Presidential election is General Petraeus. We know he’s a Republican. He has impressive managerial experience saving the U.S. from defeat in Iraq using political skill with locals on the ground. I’ve never seen General Petraeus give a long speech, but at least he has a track record of executing and getting the job done. He’s our only hope.

June 14th, 2009  | Categories: Market Journal

Picture 1.png
I posted this question to my followers last Friday: “Are you bullish or bearish on the stock market next week (ending 6/19/09)?”

After 17 votes the past 3 days, the official results are in at 41% bullish and 59% bearish. This is 1% more bearish than last week’s poll.

I do these polls on the weekly basis every Friday and publish the results on Sunday evening. Be sure to follow me on Twitter to participate and get the results.

June 12th, 2009  | Categories: Technology

US VIDEO GAMES INDUSTRY - MAY 2009
Software: $448.9M (-17%)
Hardware: $302.5M (-30%)
Accessories: $122.0M (-25%)
Total Games: $863.3B (-23%)

TOP-SELLING HARDWARE - MAY 2009
Nintendo DS: 633,500
Wii: 289,500
Xbox 360: 175,000
PlayStation 3: 131,000
PlayStation 2: 117,000
PSP: 100,400

TOP-SELLING SOFTWARE SKUs - MAY 2009
Title / Publisher / Units**
1. UFC 2009 Undisputed (X360) / THQ / 679,600
2. Wii Fit w/ Balance Board (Wii) / Nintendo / 352,800
3. EA Sports Active (Wii) / EA / 345,800
4. UFC 2009 Undisputed (PS3) / THQ / 334,400
5. Infamous (PS3) / SCEA / 175,900
6. Pokemon Platinum (DS) / Nintendo / 168,900
7. Mario Kart Wii with Wheel (Wii) / Nintendo / 158,300
8. Punch-Out!! (Wii) / Nintendo / 156,900
9. X-Men Origins: Wolverine (X360) / Activision Blizzard / 120,700
10. Wii Play w/ Remote (Wii) / Nintendo / 109,800

June 12th, 2009  | Categories: Market Journal

Picture 1.png

-Consumer sentiment 69 vs. 70 estimate. Previous was 68.7
-Government investment in Citigroup profitable? Umm, let’s not forget about the $300 billion loss guarantees Link
-Minimum wage will jump to $7.25 from $6.55 in July. Good timing no? Link
-Commencement Speeches from tech legends Link
-Soros says ban CDS Link
-IRS looking at taxing you for your corporate Blackberry Link

June 11th, 2009  | Categories: Market Journal

Picture 1.png

-Retail sales M/M 0.5% vs. 0.6% est.
-Retail sales ex-auto 0.5% vs. 0.3% est.
-Jobless claims 601K vs. 625K est.
-Business inventories -1.1% vs. -0.8% est.
-30 year $11 billion 4.72% yield, 2.68Xs bid-to-cover

Market opened up slightly and then rallied into and after the 1PM treasury auction, which went fine. After hitting new highs at around 1:32PM, the market sold off the rest of the day into the close.

TOP